Irish Unification Plebiscite Must Not Become 'Another Brexit', Commentators Alert

Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."